Every day, headlines present an inordinate amount of conflicting and worrisome information. ITR Economics™ often receives emails with articles attached predicting impending doom, a stock market crash of immense proportions, the collapse of the U.S. dollar, and a future where U.S. GDP growth is limited. Others see unlimited potential in 2014 and a year that will prove to be much stronger than 2013. ITR Economics™ says that the U.S. will experience mild expansion through the middle of 2014, followed by softness to mild decline in the second half of the year. Here are some trusted reasons why.
The U.S. Industrial Production Index annual trend, our benchmark indicator of the U.S. economy, is 2.4 percent better than one year ago. All three of the major subsectors (Mining, Manufacturing and Utility Generation) rose in September from the year earlier. We have seen steady but mild growth in the U.S. economy for five years. ITR Economics is projecting that growth in industrial production will slow as we progress through the first half of 2014, and that a mild decline will characterize the latter half of the year. This softness will be mild and short-lived, more of a pothole than a sinkhole. Material handling, logistics and supply chain professionals will do well to avoid thinking linearly over the next year in terms of planning and budgeting.
– By Alan Beaulieu , ITR Economics ™