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Economic Market Update

ECONOMIC MARKET ANALYSIS: 2018 Economic Outlook

2018 Economic Outlook: Growth Expectations and Policy Risks

By Jason Schenker, CMT®, CFP®, ERP®, CVA®, Prestige Economics, LLC—

There are many reasons to be optimistic about growth in the year ahead. Data in the latter half of 2017 were generally positive, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its global growth forecasts, and leading indicators—like global purchasing manager indices—were indicative of future growth. There is only one major downside risk, and it’s a big one: U.S. fiscal policy disappointment. If markets and businesses believe enough groundwork has been laid by fiscal policy to ensure strong growth, then the economy could see upside surprises in 2018. However, expectations have been very high since the presidential election in 2016. This means that the big question for business investment and equipment sales in the year ahead is: Will the state of fiscal policy be met with satisfaction—or disappointment?

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